For the first time the calculations of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah have gone wrong in the Lok Sabha. The entire calculation has collapsed today, and for the first time, a very important bill brought by Narendra Modi the Women’s Reservation Bill could not be passed today. It could not be passed. You can say that not just for the NDA, not just for the BJP, but for Prime Minister Modi, this is a big setback in this sensitive phase a big setback.
Failure to Secure Required Majority
To pass this bill, Modi needed a two-thirds majority. He needed a 2/3 majority. At the time of voting today, there were 528 MPs present, and according to the two-thirds majority, Modi needed 352 votes. 352 votes were required to pass this bill. But BJP and NDA could only get 298 votes. You can say there was a shortfall of about 54 votes. You can say it’s a big number.
On the other side, it seemed like the opposition would scatter. TMC might go separate. Maybe DMK might think differently. But the opposition, the entire opposition, came together. 230 votes were cast, and somewhere they gave a message to Modi that the opposition is trailing you, chasing you, confronting you.
Rahul Gandhi’s Statement and Political Reaction
On the other side, Rahul Gandhi in his speech today called Modi a magician and said many things. BJP remained agitated. After stopping this bill, Rahul Gandhi said that he is absolutely not against the women’s bill. He supports it. But the way this bill was suddenly brought by Modi had deep conspiracies behind it, and somewhere Modi was trying to play a game of increasing parliamentary seats under the cover of this bill. There was no information given, no political party meeting was held, no indication was given. Suddenly, during elections, this bill was brought. Somewhere Modi is playing with the Constitution. That is why we stopped this bill to save the Constitution. This is what Rahul Gandhi said.
Priyanka Gandhi also raised concerns over the manner in which the bill was introduced. According to her, linking women’s reservation with delimitation and census made its passage practically impossible, leading to its defeat.
Allegations and Counter Narrative
After the bill failed, the Gujarat lobby and BJP leaders started building a narrative that Congress, TMC, DMK, and others are anti-women. They accused the opposition of betraying women and blocking their progress.
It is believed that if Narendra Modi had brought this bill with genuine intention, the entire opposition would have supported it. The ruling alliance was already in favor. But according to critics, Modi continued his political strategy behind the scenes.
Strategy and Political Calculations
A few key points were highlighted:
1:The bill was introduced suddenly during crucial election periods in Bengal and Tamil Nadu.
2:No all-party meeting was held.
3:Opposition was not taken into confidence.
4:Delimitation and seat expansion were linked with the bill.
Opposition parties naturally became suspicious.
Another major claim was that the real target was Bengal, where a large percentage of women voters support TMC. Modi allegedly aimed to influence women voters through the bill, but the strategy failed.
Failure of Expected Opposition Breakup
Inside BJP circles, it was believed that opposition unity would break. There were expectations that TMC, DMK, or other parties might split or support the bill due to political pressure or offers like seat increases during delimitation.
However, none of this happened. The entire opposition stood united, delivering a major blow to the government’s expectations.
Rahul Gandhi’s “Constitution” Argument
Rahul Gandhi claimed that the bill was not just about women’s reservation but about changing the political structure of India. According to him, the opposition stopped it to protect the Constitution.
Questions on Modi–Shah Strategy
The biggest question now being asked is how Amit Shah’s political calculation failed. Despite expectations of opposition fragmentation, unity prevailed.
There are also concerns about Modi’s current political standing, especially amid issues like inflation, foreign policy challenges, and economic pressure. Analysts suggest that if upcoming state elections do not favor BJP, it could further weaken Modi’s position.
Expert Opinion
Political analyst Abhishek Kumar called it a major setback for NDA and BJP. He said this is one of the rare occasions when a government bill has failed inside Parliament. According to him, opposition strategy succeeded by shifting the debate from gender issue to regional imbalance.
He also said BJP’s expectation that opposition MPs would break under pressure completely failed.
Conclusion
Abhishek Kumar concluded that this was a calculated political move by Modi, but the strategy failed. The Women’s Reservation Bill (131st Constitutional Amendment) could not pass, marking a significant political setback.
For the first time in 12 years, Modi’s political calculation appears to have gone wrong. Analysts now say upcoming elections in Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala will be crucial in determining the political future.
