The Risky Hat-Trick Play by LDF against UDF Revival and Failed Southern Ambition of BJPAs voters go to the polls tomorrow in Kerala (April 9), the 140-member Assembly elections have turned out to be a nail-biting affair for the contenders. The incumbent LDF coalition is eyeing another historical feat in an era where no group has secured three successive terms since 1977. The Congress-led UDF is ready to make a comeback after a decade of political oblivion. The BJP-led NDA, meanwhile, has staked everything on its “breakthrough” campaign which has, thus far, looked more mirage than reality.
The Big Bet by LDF for its Historic Hat-Trick
Pinarayi Vijayan made this election about himself, at the age of 81. In 2021, the LDF won a record of 99 seats. The government has shown its performance in various sectors: the Ardram mission has brought a change in the healthcare sector; the Public Education Rejuvenation Mission has provided quality infrastructure for education; and finally, the much-awaited Vizhinjam port has started functioning.
But a decade in power has resulted in tiredness. There is an element of anti-incumbency. The state’s debts have risen to 3.1 lakh crore with the debt to GSDP ratio reaching 24.83%. Unconventional borrowings through the KIIFB have come under attack. The unemployment rate among the youth is nearly 30% with more than 2.5 lakh educated youths leaving the state each year looking for jobs. There were delays in welfare pensions, and gold smuggling scandals refused to end. Recent opinion polls predict LDF getting only 57-71 seats against its previous tally of 99 seats. A hat-trick win may come, but it would be a hard-fought one with razor-thin margins.
UDF’s Resurgent Trail
The United Democratic Front (UDF), which was reduced to a mere 41 seats in 2021, is once again making a comeback. Opinion polls indicate that the front is all set to secure a comfortable win by securing 58-81 seats with its vote share being between 36-42%. The Congress leaders like V.D. Satheesan have made the people aware of the economic crisis, unemployment issues, and the “most inefficient governance” of the ruling party. The UDF hopes to make a come-back by riding on the anti- incumbent sentiments of the left supporters.
What lends UDF an edge, on the other hand, is the lack of a major scandal involving LDF which could become the defining issue of the election campaign. It is the quotidian reality of price increases, brain drain of young people, and delayed pensions that do the job for UDF. A victory for UDF crossing the 70-seat mark means ending the Left’s monopoly of a decade and restoring bipolarity in the state politics.
BJP’s Southern Breakthrough: A Risky Experiment Failing Miserably
Here is where things get exciting and alarming for all those who cherish the secular tradition of Kerala. The BJP-led NDA has announced 2026 as its year of achieving the “south Indian breakthrough”. There have been massive campaigns in districts like Palakkad, Thrissur, Thiruvananthapuram, and central Kerala. Their campaign strategy involves extensive promotion of Sabarimala pilgrimages and attempts to win over the Christian population. The projection of their vote share ranges from 14% to 16%, compared to 11% to 13% in the 2021
Check out reality: in all credible surveys conducted before the elections, the NDA gets only 1 to 5 seats at best. Why? Because the very DNA of Kerala repels the politics practiced by the BJP. The state’s record of high human development, its syncretic culture, and resistance to majoritarian designs have consistently proven to be a stumbling block for the saffron brigade. Even with huge amounts of money and muscle power the average wealth of candidates has increased by 65% this year the BJP continues to remain a distant third player in the polls. Their talk of “breaking into a new territory” is typical propaganda aimed at polarizing votes against LDF. More importantly, the BJP’s strategy comes across as naked communal engineering in a state famous for its inter-community harmony. With a near 100% literacy rate and high welfare consciousness, voters can spot a hollow propaganda campaign aimed at sowing seeds of discord.
The True Fight: Economy vs. Ideology
Behind the political maneuverings, there is the primary concern of the voters employment and debt. The remittances-based economy of Kerala is under stress, with educated youngsters moving away due to lack of employment opportunities in their hometowns. The winning coalition will need to sort out the financial mess without cutting down welfare programs – something none of the coalitions has been able to assure. LDF will run the election on “resilience and delivery,” while UDF claims it will bring about change and employment.
April 9 Verdict: A Reality Check for the BJP
Is it a reality check for the BJP? Yes, because either LDF might get their third term based on their achievements, or UDF could come back riding on anti-incumbency. In both cases, the BJP’s great dream of the south will stay unrealizable in the years ahead. Once again, the state of Kerala has made it very clear that it rewards good governance and punishes divisionism. No matter who wins here, the only winning strategy will be that which comes up with a solution to unemployment and indebtedness in the state, rather than resorting to temple and divisive politics. For the BJP, a reality check in Kerala’s God’s Own Country is not going to taste too sweet.
