Polling in Tamil Nadu is scheduled for April 23, 2026, and counting will take place on May 4. There are just 27 days to go before the most unpredictable election in the state’s history is conducted. However, the scenario has changed since a new entrant has appeared on the scene that none of the political analysts had predicted even five years ago: Tamil cinema hero Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam.
While a second consecutive win is a certainty for the DMK and a miracle is all that the AIADMK can hope for, the entry of Tamil cinema hero Vijay has made this a three-horse contest that will see a hung assembly for the first time since 1996.
The Numbers That Tell the Story
According to an opinion poll conducted by Vote Vibe that predicted the results of the upcoming elections, DMK is expected to win between 113 and 123 seats, while AIADMK is expected to win between 106 and 116 seats.
On the other hand, Vijay’s TVK is expected to win between 2 and 8 seats. When people were asked who they want to see as CM in 2026, 39.9% said Stalin, 37.5% said Palaniswami, and 14.7% said Vijay. But here is where it gets interesting.
A survey conducted by Parawheel predicted that DMK is going to win with 25.3% votes, while Vijay’s TVK is going to win with 24.7%, and AIADMK is going to win with 22.8%. This is like a statistical tie.
According to a prediction market conducted by polymarket based in the USA, DMK has a probability of 78% to return to power. On the other hand, AIADMK has a probability of 15% to return to power. TVK has a probability of 7% to return to power. In the last week, DMK’s probability has increased by 8%, from 70% to 78%, while AIADMK and TVK have lost 4 and 6 points respectively.
The data conflict shows that no one knows how Vijay’s first election will be.
Vijay’s Perambur Gambit: Strategic Brilliance or Overconfidence?
There is speculation that Vijay is planning to contest from Perambur constituency that has the maximum voters – 222,792 voters. Perambur has 58 percent Dalits. 30.000 Christians, and over 10.000 Muslim voters.
The interesting point to be noted is that the AIADMK has decided not to contest in the Perambur constituency. This is because they have already allotted the constituency to their ally PMK. This decision has also been taken in a strategic manner to avoid a confrontation between Palaniswami and Vijay.
In other words, Palaniswami is avoiding a confrontation with Vijay. This is because Palaniswami is not allowing either the AIADMK or BJP to contest against Vijay. This decision is seen as giving a free pass to Vijay because Palaniswami is avoiding confrontation with him. This decision is also seen as Palaniswami wanting to defeat him only if he loses to a Dolitical debutant.
Vijay is also expected to launch his election campaign directly from Perambur on March 28. TVK cadres are reportedly filled with enthusiasm
The Karur Tragedy: 41 Deaths That Changed Everything
The crowd crush that caused 41 deaths and injured 80-120 others attending a TVK rally in Karur forced Vijay to suspend his campaign temporarily. Business Standard reports this tragedy revealed TVK’s lack of experience in running campaigns. Running a political rally is not like running a movie. This tragedy also brought a shadow over Vijay’s campaign.
Can he really run a government if he cannot even run a campaign rally?
But this tragedy also proved that Vijay has mass appeal. This is because such a crowd is not usually drawn to a new political party unless they have a real following.
Where Elections Will Be Won or Lost
The AIADMK is all set to face a tough contest from DMK in at least 13 of the 16 constituencies in Chennai. DMK has won CM Stalin, Deputy CM Udhayanidhi, Health Minister Ma Subramanian, and HR & CE Minister P K Sekar Babu in Chennai.
A survey conducted by Parawheel indicates TVK will display considerable strength in various constituencies. TVK is likely to be the second-most powerful political force after DMK in the Chennai region.
Chennai – The Ideological Battlefield – Can DMK be Dislodged by Vijay?
The BJP’s Awkward Position
The BJP’s Tamil Nadu chief K. Annamalai, who had expressed his desire to contest from Coimbatore’s Singanallur constituency, is now in an awkward position. The seat has not been allocated to BJP .
In his conversation with the media, K. Annamalai said, “I have not asked anyone for a seat“
The humiliation is visible. AIADMK is treating BJP like a junior ally. They are treating BJP like a junior ally to be managed and not treated with respect. Senior journalist Priyan said, “The BJP has got what they wanted. With 27 seats against 20 in 2021, it is clear Edappadi Palaniswami has yielded to the BJP high command”
But yielding power does not mean yielding respect. AIADMK is also not contesting directly against 14 DMK ministers. These constituencies have been given to NDA allies
In short. AIADMK is using BIP like cannon fodder.
The Hung Assembly Scenario
There are assumptions that a coalition government will be formed in Tamil Nadu.
If no alliance crosses 118 seats (simple majority), Tamil Nadu will have its first hung assembly in 30 years. Who will form the government then?
- DMK, being the single-largest party, could try to garner support from
- TVK AIADMK-BJP alliance could try to lure TVK into their fold by offering the Chief Minister’s position
- TVK could try to extract maximum by holding the balance
What April 23 Will Decide
This is not merely an election about who will rule Tamil Nadu for five years. It is about whether:
- The Dravidian hegemony will continue or end
- Film stars will continue to translate screen popularity into electoral success after MGR and Jayalalithaa
- BJP will ever be a contender in TN or remain a marginal presence
- South India’s last major opposition bastion will hold against Modi- Shah’s electoral juggernaut
The election continues to be about the DMK-AIADMK rivalry, in which the DMK has a slight edge in terms of welfare policies and voter support. BJP is expanding its presence, and Vijay’s TVK has thrown in a surprise element, especially for youth.
What April 23 will definitively tell us is this: Will a new entrant in politics be able to break a hegemony that has lasted for five decades, or will TN voters continue to re-elect devils they know?
The answer will be known on May 4. Until then, it is anybody’s game.
