Caste Census, Politics, and Maharashtra Elections

The caste census which has been announced and the kind of implications that it is going to have on the Indian polity. We are going to approach this and look at it from Maharashtra perspective in the beginning as to how it is going to affect the caste battles that are being waged in the state maybe between the Maratas and the Kundis, the OBC reservation issue, the Dhungar coming up and asking for reservations. How are all these issues going to affect the upcoming elections? And why does he call the caste census a con?

Political Shift on Caste Census

Then next 24 during 24 election when actually caste census demand had reached crescendo. So Modi came out you know not once or twice etc. He actually termed this demand as a urban nuxal demand but suddenly on 30th April this year the entire world a defense happens.
India was never placed as it is today. When the BJP came to power the international community now declared almost that Indian data are not reliable. They are not giving any credence to Indian data. People are naked before the state but there is the state is completely opaque to people. It should have been reverse.
We had election Modi found himself in an awkward position because Nitish Kumar has been his ally and Nitish Kumar had conducted the successful caste survey in Bihar.

Reservation and Its Complexity

Reservation is not a panacea. Reservation is actually a very very tricky kind of policy which needed so much of a care in application but these people have casually used reservation and in course time weaponized it.
Caste is a notion, caste is no notion, it splits like amoeba there is no kind of boundaries to the caste.

Contradictions Around Caste and Data

How do you see this conflict? The fact that reservations are given on the basis of caste and yet there is no reliable data when it comes to caste census. The fact that caste itself is such a fluid concept, how do you look at the contradictions and the fluidities here.
Basically you have to understand a caste census is not just a data business but it’s a politics mainly.
Congress also was not keen on enumerating and as regards BJP, BJP has been a party which inherit the ideology which has been against caste-based reservations per se and BJP consistent with that ideological stance opposed caste census.
In 2021 they gave a note before Supreme Court which declared that it is a conscious policy of the government not to include caste in the general census.

Why BJP Changed Its Stand

During the 2024 election when caste census demand had reached crescendo, Modi termed it as an urban nuxal demand but suddenly the entire old defense changes.
There are several reasons:
Firstly, the 2024 election results. BJP almost had lost power and survived with support from Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu.
Secondly, the Bihar context. Nitish Kumar had conducted caste survey and opposing it would not go well with Bihar voters.
Thirdly, the opposition united around caste census demand, so BJP adopting it could break that narrative.
Fourthly, long-term strategy. Caste census may show inequalities and create a narrative that caste-based reservation has not worked and economic-based policies should replace it.

Caste Census as a Political Tool

BJP is confident that whatever caste data comes out, it will be used to construct its own narrative.
Caste census does not have anything to do with equitability. It is just a con. It only produces data about numbers, education and economic position.

Neoliberal Context and Inequality

The demand for caste census arises from broader inequality created after 1991 neoliberal policies.
There is jobless growth, reduced employment elasticity, agrarian distress and increasing inequality even among dominant castes.
But caste census cannot address these inequalities.

Limits of Subcategorization

Subcategorization does not solve the problem. Groups will continue to demand further division.
Caste splits endlessly like an amoeba, making it impossible to fix boundaries.

Real Solution

Solution lies in:
Equal quality education
Healthcare
Livelihood security
Redistributive policies
Reservation alone is not the solution.
India’s governance has been weak in redistribution and land distribution remains highly unequal.

Data, State and Transparency

Data should empower people but today people are exposed to the state while the state remains opaque.
Surveillance systems like Aadhaar have expanded, but transparency has reduced.
Caste census data will also be political and used for political purposes.
Data as Diagnostic Tool
Caste census is like a diagnostic report. It shows inequality but does not solve it.
Its usefulness depends on political will.

Maharashtra: A Caste Cauldron

Maharashtra has intense caste dynamics:
Dominant Maratha caste
OBC groups like Kunbis, Malis, Dhangars
Continuous reservation demands
Caste census may create awareness among OBCs about their numbers and push them to demand proportional representation.

Impact on Political Parties

NCP appears as a Maratha-centric party
Congress remains a broad but loose coalition
Shiv Sena factions may struggle due to cross-caste positioning
BJP may face challenges if OBCs demand greater share
BJP’s strategy of uniting castes under a religious identity may weaken.

Conclusion

Caste census is a political exercise. It provides visibility but not solutions.
Its impact will depend on how the data is used and whether it leads to real redistribution or remains a tool for political narratives.